Skip to main content
SwampInsiders/Case Studies/LHX
HIGH SignalCase Study

The Federal Contract That Came 45 Days Later

Tommy Tuberville — LHX — April 2022

106/ 130
Politician
Tommy Tuberville
Party / State
R-AL
Chamber
Senate
Ticker
LHX
Direction
BUY
Amount
$50k–$250k
Owner
Self
Trade Date
2022-04-05
Disclosed
2022-04-25
Lag
20d

Committee Overlap

Direct jurisdiction

Senate Armed Services Committee directly authorizes defense procurement. L3Harris provides night-vision systems, classified communications equipment, and electronic warfare systems — all under committee oversight and DoD appropriations.

Committee

Senate Armed Services Committee

What Happened

LHX rose ~11% in the 30 days following the contract award announcement. The stock outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 9 percentage points over the same window.

SwampScore Breakdown

Committee Overlap ×1.15
+69 / 69
Federal Award Nexus (+90d)
+20 / 20
Trade Conviction ($50k–$250k)
+20 / 20
Direction
+3 / 3
Disclosure
+3 / 3
Herding Cluster
+0 / 15
Politician Alpha
+0 / 10
Leadership Role
+0 / 12
SwampScore Total106/ 130

Self-filed × Senate (1.0 × 0.92) — Senate breadth discount applied. Raw sum 115 × 0.92 = 105.8 → 106.

The Full Story

Senator Tuberville disclosed over 130 stock trades in his first two years in office while sitting on the Senate Armed Services Committee. His April 2022 purchase of L3Harris Technologies drew particular scrutiny: L3Harris was awarded a $1.8 billion Army contract for Enhanced Night Vision Goggle systems on May 19, 2022 — 44 days after the disclosed trade. Tuberville was on the exact subcommittee that oversees Army equipment procurement. He did not recuse himself or divest. The trade was self-filed with maximum conviction ($50k–$250k).

Why SwampScore Scored It This Way

The Federal Award bonus exists for exactly this scenario. SwampScore cross-references USASpending.gov daily, and when a confirmed government contract lands within 90 days of a trade by a member with direct committee jurisdiction, the score receives +20 points. This is not circumstantial — it is a quantifiable nexus between the committee seat, the company's revenue stream, and the timing of the trade. The Senate multiplier (0.92×) applies because senators have broader portfolios than House members, but it does not prevent a HIGH score when direct overlap and a federal award nexus both fire.

The Signal Lesson

The federal award nexus is the most mechanically defensible bonus in the formula. Committee oversight → procurement decision → company revenue: the causal chain is explicit. When the senator who approves defense budgets buys a defense contractor that then wins a $1.8B contract, the 90-day nexus window is doing exactly the work it was designed to do.

Armed ServicesFederal AwardDefenseDirect OverlapSenate
Previous case study
All case studies
Next case study

See live High-signal trades

SwampScore runs on every new STOCK Act filing. Only 5.1% qualify as High.

Open Signal Feed →